Don't Give up on Us Baby...

Why Blue States AREN'T Blue, and Why Abandonment Will Eventually Surrender the Country

Ok, I felt the need to harken back to the halcyon days of my childhood and one of the schmaltziest songs ever recorded, by noted crooner David Soul (slightly better known as Hutch from "Starsky and Hutch" fame).

Ok, now on to more serious business…

The following statement will be met with A LOT of cognitive dissonance with my friends on the right: THERE ARE NO BLUE STATES. Yes, I know, that seems idiotic on its face. Yes, I know how to read election results, and electoral maps, and that Democratic US Senators, Governors, and state-level Democratic majorities are a real thing, especially in states like mine here in Washington. But that's not my point.

So-called "Blue States" are blue, largely, because they're being held hostage by staggeringly deep indigo cities, and some adjacent suburbs. Look at the map of virtually any statewide election, and while the total votes may be overwhelming for Democrats, the rural, exurban, and even many suburban locales are almost always won by Republicans. But as cities become larger relative to those populations, they eventually win the tug of war in electoral politics. There's a reason that states with large cities, like NY, IL, CA, MA, and WA have become largely blue voting safe states for Democrats. Conversely, it's why states like WY, OK, SD, and WV have moved pretty comfortably into the red column; they lack the huge cities of their blue state brethren.

This isn't really a revolutionary idea, obviously. But it does harken back to the past, when WA had competitive statewide races and was even a "swing state" for Presidential races, a fact that Scott Walker reminded me of during a visit here last year. I was in college at USC when they still had real Republicans as Governor (not pretend ones like Ah-nold). George Deukmejian and Pete Wilson were popular and ran a largely functional state.

The great sort that has occurred over the last 30 years has made some profound changes to the electoral map and each party's voters. Combine that with more sophisticated data and modeling when applied to redistricting, and there are a lot more "safe" Congressional districts that are decided in the primaries, not in the general election. And when you look at an election map, this segregation is obvious: cities in America are deep, deep blue, and the vast geography across the country is dark red.

2024 Presidential Election Map

So, in light of all this, the battle cry from many people on the right with large platforms in Red States has been for those still behind in Blue States, "Get Out!" Jesse Kelly has been saying this for years. This week, Tomi Lahren suggests abandoning California. And believe me, I GET THE SENTIMENT! When you see the horrific curriculum at schools, it becomes an existential threat to many families. If private or home schooling isn't an option, leaving a blue enclave is nearly mandatory. Here in Washington, they've consolidated largely all decision making at the state level, with very little autonomy for local school boards to deviate or they risk defunding.

And that's certainly not the only reason to leave. Confiscatory taxes that can endanger your business or lifetime savings built to pass along are being severely infringed upon to fund failed utopian policies. And lastly, your very freedom can be at stake, as we saw in a surreal political prosecution here in Washington, where a Republican election observer was convicted of a felony for refusing to wear a mask while observing ballot counting. So yes, there are plenty of reasons to consolidate in safer, saner, Red States.

But I think that is a short-sighted approach for national conservatism and the America First movement (not the same thing, but with significant overlap, along with the Republican party of course). And who is saying something similar, in a slightly different way? Charlie Kirk, an important spokesperson and advisor within the America First/MAGA movement: Charlie Kirk's warning.

His message is right on the money. Younger voters, and especially those in urban areas, consistently say that their biggest concern is affordability. They're concerned about how they can get ahead, buy a home, and start a family, all essential parts of the American dream. And to the extent they're cut off from the American dream, that's how resentment will fester and grow and give rise to future Mamdanis, AOCs, Kshama Sawants, Jayapals, Bernie Sanders, etc.

And those blue bastions aren't laying down their weapons. As you've seen from Tesla terrorism to ICE attacks, if left to their own devices, they are exceptionally effective disruptors. One of the hallmarks of progressive radicalism is organizing and network building. Conservatives/Republicans tend to believe in our own ideas, and that they're self-evident enough to simply carry the day. Not the radical leftists. They are constantly searching, reaching out, holding meetings, and unearthing fellow disaffected travelers. And they have a never-ending conveyor belt delivering new recruits: academia, unions, and climate catastrophists.

Left alone, these forces continue to build strength in blue areas and fully intend on exporting their ideology to vulnerable states through dominating urban politics. It happened in California and Washington in the 90's and early aughts. Then it was Colorado, now a safely blue state. Arizona is teetering on the brink, and Georgia has lately been brought into play. If Dallas, Houston, and Austin ever really get big enough to dominate the state's politics, losing an irreplaceable Red electoral outpost would change the country.

So yes, I think it's detrimental to taking back our country by retreating to safe, red ground. Allowing blue areas to scheme and export their ideology is dangerous (anyone else notice the approval of the Pride flag at Boise city hall this year?). And if you want to build something enduring and lasting, you can't ignore the very real plight of young, urban voters. They are angry, and not unjustifiably so. They need to be exposed to better arguments and examples than jealous class warfare. They need a hopeful future built on America's founding ideals, the uplifting power of free markets, and a country that cares about their concerns. How we expose them to those principles when our education systems work against delivering those ideals is a huge challenge. But one we need to consider deeply.

In the timeless wisdom of David Soul at the end of his song, "we can still come through…" Or maybe I'm wrong and we're destined to lose the "last best hope"—what do I know…